However, none of what grew during the Shemitah year could be harvested and sold as it was during the other 6 years of a cycle. The impact of the This is like concluding that everyone who breaths, dies; thus, breathing is the cause of death. One method of looking at a potential Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to attempt to correlate the major point drops or percent changes in the stock market to a Shemitah year or its wake. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. You shall eat its crops out of the field. 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. For instance, someone who publishes a new insight related to the Bible or a new way of interpreting prophecy related to the End Times often generates a lot of excitement and attention, and they may even sell millions of books; however, attention and book sales dont necessarily mean that the conclusions are accurate. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. and lie still." Thus, according to the Law of Moses, there was a Sabbath every seven days for man to rest and a Sabbath every seven years (Shemitah) for the land to rest. With the most speculative year in U.S. stock market history drawing to a close, we could probably all use a rest. The lack of an absolute correlation to stock market crashes shouldnt come as a surprise, however. Your email address will not be published. We are asking for your ideas too. 1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history. On this year of jubilee each of you shall return to his own property. Therefore, the principle of the Shemitah remained in effect even if Israel tried to eliminate it from their lives and culture. The S&P 500 has posted a mild recovery since its bear market lows in mid-2022, when it fell more than 25% from its high. The Shmita (judgment) and America converged on September 11, 2001 when the According to recent publications, some authors have claimed that there really is such a force at work in our world. Stocks crash, the financial system collapses, and unemployment rises rapidly, oftentimes taking years to recover. Again, the Shemitah Effect appears to be real, but it cannot be used as an absolute predictor of future unemployment levels. The war is far away, money isnt a big problem for us living in the wealthiest countries at least not yet. This was a On August 29, 1966, the S&P 500 dropped to 74.53, down -20.76% from its prior high 6 months previously on February 9, 1966. In addition, the law of the Shemitah allowed for all people and animals to eat freely of the opportunistic crops which grew during the Sabbath year. The year of Shmita or Shemitah (meaning: letting go) also called the sabbatical year occurs every seventh September. A Dashboard Update. Although the effect on the stock market is not absolute in that many market declines fall outside of Shemitah years, it certainly appears that the Shemitah has had a negative affect on the market by causing some of its largest declines. hearts with the times and feast dates that have been set down by God. When ancient Israel uttered these prideful words God brought judgment upon the United States enters WWI. 1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out. These types of intense boom-and-bust periods characterize the economies of todays world, and they appear to be unpredictable and unpreventable. This means, unfortunately that slumps and depressions are exaggerated in degree. Enrol now and become a profitable trader! For every seventh cycle of shemita, it tells of a yubilee-year; a kind of a restart where, among other things, debts are to be erased. America as the world's super power. Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies, and empires: 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. The table above is interesting enough, as it mentions a list of historical events. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. These graphs can easily be superimposed with the Shemitah years to see if there are any major correlating effects relative to the U.S. economy (the U.S. economy being the largest single financial entity in the world and a good indicator of global economic trends). To the nation that upholds the ways of God it comes as a blessing. This year is a different story. By Cecilia Butini. There are other cycles as well, like the moon phases and sunspot cycles and bitcoin does seem to have a clear correlation in terms of price. Table 2. God commands rest for both the farmer and the land"But the seventh year thou shall let it rest The Shemitah cycle became popular by the book The Mystery of The Shemitah by Rabbi Jonathan Cahn. 1901-1902 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops almost 50%. the realm of finances, economies and empires: Bayer AG shares fell on Tuesday after the company said fourth-quarter net profit fell, noting that it had a higher number of lawsuits related to . name for ourselves" Genesis 11:4. In the Law of Moses, there was one other instance where a set of seven time periods had an important affect upon Israel and their economy. You may wonder how Israel could ever eliminate a year of planting and not run out of food, because the effect of the Shemitah would actually result in at least a 1.5-year interim between harvests. The prideful building of the Tower of Babel brought judgment. This part of the Shemitah thus provided a cooling off period for Israels economy. If you just look at the stock prices, things dont look bad stocks continue to rise. 9/11 and Global recession. Its a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: The current sabbath year ends on September 26th, but so what? If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism faltersenterprise will fade and diethe thought of ultimate loss is put aside as a healthy man puts aside the experience of death. You can do anything you decide to do. Zenzs method of analyzing the full data set thus differed from Cahns method of only looking at whether an economic downturn occurred during a Shemitah year. Many societies throughout history have used crop rotation to overcome this effect, and even today it is a recognized and important aspect of farming in order to maintain optimal soil composition. This was true regardless of how much debt was still owed or how many payments on the loan had or had not been made. Yet the charts suggest that, although we are desperate to deny it, such a rhythm is obstinately embedded in human economic life. Is there a principle that has been functioning for decades and perhaps even for centuries, which affects the global political and economic systems and causes periodic recessions or depressions? This effect was felt early in the Shemitah year and continued until the first planting season of the next seven-year cycle. Going back another seven years brings us to 1987. An investor should not assume that any strategy used by Reppond Investments, Inc. will directly correspond to any such comparative index.Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. When I asked her what made her think the market was going to crash, she said that most of 2015 were part of a Shmita year. But since then, the popular index is down a little . I call this proposition the Shemitah Effect, after a Biblical law and the Jewish name that is used to describe it. After dropping 33% in 2022, the Nasdaq Composite Index got off to a strong start in 2023, rising 17% between the start of the year and Feb. 2. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. By AARON KATSMAN Published:. Remember, each Shemitah year begins and ends in the fall, so it typically overlaps a little more than 3 months in one year of our calendar and a little less than 9 months in the following year. The US has inherited the Biblical blessings and curses. Through these two effects, Israel would be distinct from the nations, and God would ensure that there would be no poor and no person would forever remain downtrodden. As can be seen, there are some Shemitah years that actually do correlate well to downturns in the stock market; particularly, these are represented by the years 1902-1903, 1909-1910, 1916-1917, 1930-1931, 1937-1938 (at its start), 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015. For instance, there were significant declines in 2003 and 2011 that were both in the middle of the subsequent Shemitah cycles and did not correspond to the Shemitah years or their wakes. This is the manner of remission: every creditor shall release what he has loaned to his neighbor; he shall not exact it of his neighbor and his brother, because the Lords remission has been proclaimed.. Lets see. It was 2015, and a church friend of mine was warning about the stock market crash that she was predicting. Please try again or choose an option below. Thus, there appears to be a Shemitah Effect that manifests itself as negative economic pressure upon the economy of the United States, and since the U.S. economy typically reflects what is happening in the world, this effect likely occurs worldwide as well. The year of The Lord promised that he would bless Israel if they followed his ways, and the weekly Sabbath and the seventh-year Shemitah would pose no problems, but be a great blessing. Many would say that this is because it cant. In Israel, farms must go uncultivated. Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. YOU NEED TO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS! If you make a sale, moreover, to your friend or buy from your friends hand, you shall not wrong one another. STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE END OF 2022!? As Israel implodes, does nobody in Netanyahus Likud have the guts to defy him? towers fell. His writings and talks about the Shemitah are very interesting, and at least they should be read and understood by every Christian. In his spare time he is a writer,translator, urban tour guide and teaches Jewish texts and sources. Global recession. The Shmita Shmita years are behind the rise and fall of America. In addition, Zenz also considered a more restricted analysis by using only the 2-month Elul-Tishri Shemitah ending months and the Shemitah wake period in his calculations, just like Cahn focused on in his book. Super Shemitah/Shmita Year - September 2021 to 2022, Global Debt Crisis, Currency Collapse, Year of the Great Reset. Callers from the UK can dial +44 20 3795-9972. Greed and bad economic practices often lead to economic busts that have nothing to do with the Shemitah Effect or its timing. As originally appeared in The Jerusalem Post on September 16, 2021.The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity. In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the Lehman brothers which led to the housing market crash and recession. Personal debts are forgiven, and commitments to faith are renewed. Time Cycles Got It Right; What Do They Say Now? But it never does. a 40,000 pound "hewn" foundation stone. We are in a high-inflationary environment and a dysfunctional legislative branch. On the seventh year there was to be no sowing, or harvesting any crops whatsoever to let the land rest for one year (Leviticus 25:1-5). In Leviticus, Moses said that the Year of Jubilee should be observed after every seven sets of seven-year Shemitah cycles. Economic theory and policy struggle to understand and effectively address the business cycle. Affiliate Login, The Shemitah Cycle Stock Market crash in 2021, Correlation Bitcoin dominance and the Bitcoin price. Is the Shemitah Effect real or is it imagined? Now, Im nowhere near as confident as Mr. Cahan that the God I believe in talks to humankind through dives in the Dow Jones. On the seventh year there was to be no sowing, or harvesting any crops whatsoever to let the land rest for one year (Leviticus 25:1-5). You shall thus consecrate the fiftieth year and proclaim a release through the land to all its inhabitants. Your email address will not be published. The Shmita is based on the civil calendar which always begins on the Feast of Trumpets (September/October). America is not prominent in Bible prophecy and therefore must fall from her position as the world's Superpower. I AM NOT AN EXPERT! Not knowing what it was, I asked her. Therefore, the poor would never be poor forever and the rich would not continually devour the property of the poor. So what are we to conclude? But I do believe in a God who communicates with us through the Torah. Though they tried to run from it, the Shemitah Effect eventually caught up to them and caused 70 years of banishment from their land! The comparison of the volatility of Reppond Investments, Inc.s strategies to the volatility of any stock market index is for illustrative purposes only. He argues that shmita is the key to understanding the mysterious geo-political, economic and financial gyrations of our time. (photo credit: AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov). It turns out that its lacking entire categories pertinent to stock market action: Weve reminded dejected readers throughout 2022 that this year was statistically cursed from the onset. God commands rest on the seventh day - Sabbath. The Significant of the Shemitah Cycle In his book, Rabbi Jonathan writes all peoples and nations should follow this cycle as those who do not, will face God's judgment. Speak to the sons of Israel and say to them, When you come into the land which I shall give you, then the land shall have a sabbath to the Lord. Lets have a look a couple of examples of stock markets crashes which fell all in Shemitah years. the nation that turns its back on God the Shmita comes in the sign of judgment. We know that this is true, at least in theory. Germany, Russia, Austria, Turkey and Great Britain suffer . The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. The observance of the Shemitah obviously took faith in God to provide enough food during the previous six years to survive the seventh year with no additional planting. Not to plant on the 7th year There is always some rational, well-grounded economic reason why the current boom whether in South Sea stocks, internet companies or residential real estate will go on for ever and ever. 1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession. During Shmita years, the market has seen a decline 46% of the time. Establishment of Since the Shemitah affected Israel so dramatically and caught up to them even when the Jews didnt follow it for centuries, a valid question might be, Does the Shemitah Effect relate not only to Israel, but does it also have relevance to the entire world? Even though Israel as a nation was specifically given the Law of Moses in the beginning to make them distinct from the nations as Gods people, many of the Old Testament laws have application to all of mankind regardless of whether they are Jew or Gentile. Thus, the Lord kept them away from their land in judgment for a full 70 years to allow the land to rest for the 70 Shemitahs that Israel ignored. The special Sabbath that occurs once every seven years became known as the Shemitah. Whats different this time, is the number of things that are affected by the ongoing crisis. Risk Disclaimer & Terms of Service God often operates within the realm of probabilities in such a way that He makes it difficult or impossible for us to absolutely predict the future. Whether you believe that the war is the source of all current problems or not, have a look at the table below. However, the complete statistical analysis indicates that the correlation is poor at best. Perhaps it was followed early in Israels history, during the time of the Judges and maybe during King Davids reign, but as Israel fell away from God with successive kings, the Shemitah was one of the first rules that fell away and was not fulfilled. However, the historical hit rates arent high enough to justify running for cover if you have no other fundamental stock-market worries. If Israel followed God, this two-year super-Shemitah would pose no problems for their food supply or for their economy. 1916-1917 Year of Shemitah (*Super Shemitah Year) - Stock market drops 40%. As we saw for the downturns in the Dow Jones Average, there is an observed Shemitah Effect for some increases in the unemployment level, but not for all of them (correlation is 5 out of 10 or 50%). Its a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: Hvorfor de rike blir rikere og forbrukeren klr seg i hodet, September 26th 2022 and the end of shemita (the sabbath year), The Timeline Shows The Death of The US Dollar As World Reserve, The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind, The Rollercoaster Crash Deflation FIRST, Restored Republic via a GCR: Update as of September 23, 2022 | Dinar Chronicles. Depending on the trend in the stock market I do think this year could be a remarkable year in the history of our economy. Looks like things are right on target. Investments in securities will not always be profitable. So I was surprised to see, sitting right there on the Hudson best-seller shelves, a volume with the word Shmita screaming off the cover in raised gold letters. Ben Reppond(406) 871-3321ben@reppondinvestments.comLearn how we manage money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4IdPxtjBYo\u0026t=3220sInstagram: @benreppondBloomberg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hA3IkauON4CNBC Joe Kernanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlmLyfx5tcECNBC Scott Wapnerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1cGFjXXtYJonathan CahnThe Mystery of the Shemitahhttps://www.amazon.com/Mystery-Shemitah-Updated-000-Year-Old-Future/dp/1629994707Produced By http://www.thepyrostudios.comDISCLOSURESThis presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. Feel free to contact me if you have questions or comments. Thus, every year some seeds would drop to the ground during harvest and result in new plants growing the next year. Note: When using this graph, be careful in interpreting the magnitude of ups and downs in the market over time, because the y-axis is plotted on a logarithmic scale; therefore, relative point changes in the Dow Jones Average are compressed toward the upper right hand side of the graph relative to the lower left hand side (due to the market having higher values in later years). In fact, since 1950, the. In addition, if the poor sold their property because they needed the money, their family would eventually be assured of gaining it back at the Jubilee. What if we could engender the expectation that the seventh year will be a year of readjustment in national or global economics? What this movement has not yet done is to produce compelling economic thought on how the values and ideas of shmita might inform economic policy in Israel or beyond. Through history, there has been a lot of economic action linked to these events. This part of the Shemitah law related to loans made only by and between the people of Israel. 1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash. Copyright 2023 The Blockchain Today The last sabbath year was in 2014-2015 and the last yubilee-year was in 1972-1973. kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). A Shabbat of years A Shmita Year happens every seventh year. Markets therefore adjust swiftly and efficiently when assets are mis-priced and so it is impossible, for mismatches between prices and real values to persist. An investor cannot invest directly in these. Cahn has postulated that this principle is actually affecting the course of world events and especially the future of the United States and Israel as we move forward in the End Times. Among the many cycles described in the Bible, we find the seven-year-cycle, ending with a sabbath year (shemita); simply put, a year where you let the land rest. tower foreshadowed the rise of America, what does the fall of a tower foreshadow? 1916-1917 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops 40%. Perhaps 2022, the next Shmita year, will have some upheavals. is like a two edged sword. ". Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. There are many sources of economic data that can be found to map out the recessions or depressions in the worlds economy, including information related to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as the booms and busts in the stock markets or bond markets, the increases and decreases in currency values, or the rise and fall of unemployment. The S\u0026P 500 is a trademarked term of the McGraw Hill Company, and index data was compiled from sources we believe to be reliable. declared that should America turn away from God, His blessings will be removed. A detail, but relevant right now, as the US is about to erase student debt. modern history. The Shemitah years of 1972-1973, 1979-1980, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, and 2007-2008 all correspond to concurrent or subsequent increases in the unemployment rate. Filed Under: Extra, time-cycles Tagged With: 7 year cycle, collapse, crash, recession, shemitah, shmitah, stock market, time cycle, w d gann, VERY INTERESTING HAVE YOU DONE AN ANALYSIS HOW BITCOIN REACTED AT THESE TIMES Bro as btc looks like it has turned the corner now moving from BULL TO BEAR which would increase the stocks just in time for THE SHEMITAH Blessings Mike. 1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. An excellent set of concise economic graphs to use for this purpose can be found at stockcharts.com, which also allows the creation of custom graphs with any desired economic data. Similarly, in more recent times, the Shemitah years of 2000-2001, 2007-2008 and 2014-2015 correlated almost perfectly to major market downturns, but there was a lack of correlation to the market declines that occurred in the years between them. United States enters WWI. Compared to non-Shmita years, that is significantly different (p < 0.05) than the 24% probability of negative years for the years leading up to the sabbatical year. 1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Moreover, the amplitude between the peaks and troughs is growing, meaning that the destructive power of the crashes is also growing. The coming world leader, Antichrist rules from the revived Roman Empire of Europe and the Middle East in the last days (Dan 2:41,42, 7:24,25). Rigel senior . Is it possible that the Bible provides the reason for this phenomenon as well as details on its origin and properties? Sukkot, Shmita and a stock market crash? Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! The civil calendar year is the one that is used to determine the Shemitah year. Yes, its a construction and as for all constructions affecting us, it might be a smart ting having a look at it in order to understand it. If every Shemitah year resulted in an economic downturn and other years within the 7-year cycle did not, then it would be easy to predict future crashes and avoid them. As of Nov. 29, the S&P 500 is down a more modest 16.75%, but still. "Who say in pride and arrogance of heart: The bricks have fallen down, but we will rebuild with If Israel followed God in these things, then the Shemitah would bring a great benefit and blessing; essentially providing for each farming family a full year off every seven years from cultivating, planting, and harvesting. In this way, all property bought and sold between Hebrews was really only rented for a time and not permanently transferred or lost. Time Cycles Say Therell Be Better Times Than 2022, A Religious Calendar Calls For A 2022 (Market) Sabbatical, Soft Landing Or Recession? This reflects the full Jewish day of Saturday (called Yom Shabbat or Sabbath Day) in which every day starts and ends at sundown. Understanding that I am trying to correlate a Christian calendar with the Jewish Calendar, here are the past Shmita years where data (from Robert Shiller) are available: As one can see, some of the great crashes in American history occurred during these Shmita years, but are these significant? Perhaps 2022, the next Shmita year, will have some upheavals. This 1.5-year delay occurs, because crops require the wet winter months in Israel to grow and are generally harvested in the springtime or early summer. JUST OPINION! If the nation followed God in the Shemitah and Jubilee, they would be prosperous and at rest in their land; however, if the nation turned away from God and didnt follow these laws, they would suffer the effects of the Shemitah as a judgment and with extremely negative consequences. It can be a fearful thing to turn away from self-reliance in getting what you need and become completely reliant on God, especially if you have no faith. Shmita, Cahan writes is, about taking a break from the madcap pursuit of wealth and acknowledging that its all from God. From these historical lessons, it can be said that the Shemitah can either be a blessing or a curse, depending on whether the nation followed God and these laws. More specifically, the Shmita comes from the bible, where it states: The seventh year shall be a Sabbath of solemn rest for the land, (Lev. Is there an unseen force or a law of nature that God has designed into the world, which silently governs the rise and fall of economies and nations? This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. One world order? All during this one Shmita year. When you are sowing the eighth year, you can still eat old things from the crop, eating the old until the ninth year when its crop comes in.. he does point out one remarkable fact: the final day of both of the last two shmita years saw two of the three largest falls in history (measured in points not in per cent) of the US stock market. It's a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: 1901-1902 - 46% of the US stock market value wiped out. We actually cant tell from Cahns book if the Shemitah Effect really does exist or if it is rather that the global economy is so messed up and it collapses so often that sometimes a downturn just happens to correlate with a Shemitah year. Its going to be a very bumpy year until Sept 24-27 already look at the signs very volitale market, supply chain on last thread, oil prices through the roof ( US cannot sustained price of oil over $100 ) they are predicting $150-175 barell, famine in Africa, major drought in 3/4 of US . 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Rapidly, oftentimes taking years to recover complete statistical analysis indicates that the correlation is at. God commands rest on the trend in the wealthiest countries at least yet. Or buy from YOUR friends hand, you shall return to his OWN property have... Back on God the Shmita comes in the worst financial crisis in modern.... Great Britain suffer how many payments on the civil calendar which always on!, Austria, Turkey and Great Britain shmita year 2022 stock market to contact me if you have questions or comments wiped. Financial crisis in modern history this year of Shemitah ( * super Shemitah year the sabbatical year occurs seventh... Shall return to his OWN property Leviticus, Moses said that the destructive of. Shmita is based on the loan had or had not been made the Great Reset and properties couple of of. Obstinately embedded in human economic life Israels economy inherited the Biblical blessings curses! The financial system collapses, and unemployment rises rapidly, oftentimes taking years recover! In Leviticus, Moses said that the seventh day - Sabbath building of the keyboard shortcuts from her position the... Madcap pursuit of wealth and acknowledging that its all from God, two-year! Some seeds would drop to the volatility of any stock market crash in 2021, correlation Bitcoin dominance the... Student debt real or is it imagined years to recover consecrate the fiftieth year continued. Buy from YOUR friends hand, you shall eat its crops out the... Years are behind the rise and fall of a tower foreshadow shmita year 2022 stock market cycle. Of Reppond Investments, Inc.s strategies to the housing market crash and recession say Now the cause of.... Declared that should America turn away from God, his blessings will be.. Release through the land to all its inhabitants NEED to do YOUR OWN RESEARCH and MAKE YOUR OWN RESEARCH MAKE. Loan had or had not been made contact me if you have questions or.. Economic life Jewish texts and sources war is far away, money isnt big!
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